Round 1 Series Preview: Bucks vs. Heat

With two playoff series against one another since 2020, the Miami Heat and Milwaukee Bucks are far from mysterious opponents. They know each other -- personnel, tendencies, tactics, the whole gamut of identity. And for a time, the Bucks’ identity needed redemption because of the Heat. They lost to the Toronto Raptors in 2019 after leading the series 2-0, then went looking for revenge in 2020 only to lose in five games to the Heat.

Of course, Milwaukee found its redemption the following year, sweeping the Heat in the first round en route to the NBA championship. Like Milwaukee the year prior, the Heat didn't fade away softly after that series loss. The following season, both teams were eliminated from the playoffs by the Boston Celtics in seven games. Now both are looking to build on those losses, looking to vindicate past losses, and looking to overcome former tormentors.

Despite the similar backstories, the two teams are far from equal coming into the series. The Bucks won the most games in the NBA this year and have three finalists among the five major on-court player awards -- Giannis Antetokounmpo for Most Valuable Player, Brook Lopez for Defensive Player, and Bobby Portis for Sixth Man. The Heat lost their first play-in game and won the second to capture the eighth seed.

Let's break down every possible angle of the series, the matchups and strategies, and forecast how each team might approach the series and the adjustments that come between games.

Injuries

These are two healthy teams, peaking at the right time, in terms of availability. Neither team has a rotation player missing. Kyle Lowry suffered from a sore left knee between play-in games, but that didn't keep him out of any games.

For the Bucks, three players missed time late in the season with injury: Khris Middleton, Grayson Allen, and Pat Connaughton. All three have practiced in full and are probable. Middleton of course has been working his way back from a devastating knee injury last year in the playoffs, but he has rounded into shape during the last leg of the season. Since rejoining the starting lineup on March 7, he averaged 19.9 efficient points and 7.0 assists per game before playing only eight minutes against the Chicago Bulls in his last contest of the regular season.

The Basic Numbers

The numbers heavily favor the Bucks here. (They will throughout this preview piece -- the Bucks are, of course, the No 1 seed and the Heat No. 8.) Milwaukee has been dominant this season, and while Miami dialed up the offensive consistency towards the end of the year, the season-long numbers were middling.

Season stats for Bucks and Heat

The only area that offers a glimmer of hope to Miami is the possession game. The Bucks eschew forcing turnovers and are below average at maintaining possession themselves -- while the Heat prioritize both components. As a result, the Heat were sixth in net field goal attempts this season, totaling 169 more than their opponents. The Bucks finished 27th, attempting 233 fewer shots than their opponents. That's an average gap of approximately (very approximately) five field-goal attempts per game, which would be a sizable detriment for Milwaukee to overcome -- akin to spotting opponents a five-point lead before the game even starts. While the Bucks are an elite team at cleaning the defensive glass and holding opponents to one shot per possession, that didn't do enough to outweigh the turnover gap.

Otherwise, these look like two teams that try to win games the same way. Both teams prioritize the defensive side of the floor, try to win games with plenty of triples, and play measured, half-court basketball. The Bucks simply do it better -- ranking above the Heat in all three of those categories throughout the season.

While much of that translated to the season series between the two teams, it didn't result in blowout wins for Milwaukee

Season Series Numbers

Perhaps the most significant surprise of the preview -- yes, this is a 1-8 matchup, but the teams split the season series at two games apiece. (To repeat: these two teams are familiar with one another, both from past playoffs as well as from this regular season.)

Season series stats between Bucks and Heat

Plenty went right for the Bucks. They fired up far more triples and were much more efficient on them. They did well in the turnover game, coming close to breaking even. And they even won the game in transition. But Miami absolutely dominated the paint, with a monstrous offensive rebounding rate on one end while eliminating paint scoring for Milwaukee on the other. As a result, even though the net rating was uneven (Milwaukee won one blowout, while the Heat won in two close games), the season series was split.

That doesn't tell the whole story. When the two teams met in back-to-back games in January, Antetokounmpo was missing with a knee injury. He is Milwaukee's leading defensive rebounder, and one of seven players in the league to play at least 1000 minutes and have a defensive rebounding rate on missed field goals of at least 26 percent. At the same time, Brook Lopez and Connaughton took 30 of their combined 44 shots from deep in the two games, spacing the floor -- with no one committing to the drive. The January 12 game in particular saw the Bucks fail to reach the paint -- it was a bottom-five driving frequency game for Milwaukee on the season.

In the February 4 rematch, Antetokounmpo avenged the earlier losses, overwhelming the Heat with a 35-point triple double. Again, the Bucks attempted 40 triples -- Connaughton, in particular, was committed to spacing the floor as he attempted nine triples in only 10 shots. But this time, with Antetokounmpo raging down the lane and scoring 15 points on six shots while driving, Milwaukee scored 123 points in the win.

In the final game of the season between the two teams, on February 24, Milwaukee won in a laugher despite Antetokounmpo playing only six minutes because of a knee injury. Bobby Portis replaced him with 18 points, but mostly the team won behind its incredible defense; the Heat managed only 99 points, as only Jimmy Butler and Caleb Martin managed to shoot at least 50 percent from the field before garbage time. The Heat attempted 40 triples of their own -- the 12th-most of the season for them -- but they misfired, connecting on only nine. (It didn't matter to the result of course, but this was Milwaukee's second-lowest driving rate in a game. The Bucks really don't attack the paint with any consistent frequency when Antetokounmpo doesn't play.)

Starter Matchups

A quick caveat: these aren't guaranteed. The Heat could start Caleb Martin instead of Max Strus, or even Kevin Love. But this is the group they started in the play-in games, and it's my best guess here.

Milwaukee:

PG: Jrue HolidaySG: Grayson AllenSF: Khris MiddletonPF: Giannis AntetokounmpoC: Brook Lopez

Miami:

PG: Gabe VincentSG: Tyler HerroSF: Max StrusPF: Jimmy ButlerC: Bam Adebayo

One of the most important components here is size; the Bucks are bigger at every position, outside of the shooting-guard matchup between Allen and Herro. And with players like Portis, Jae Crowder, and Joe Ingles coming off the bench, the Bucks lose little size even without all the starters on the floor. If the Heat's path to victory runs through the paint, it will be especially difficult against a healthy and gargantuan Milwaukee team. That would remain the case even if Love or Martin started; though they are bigger than Strus, Miami would lose shooting, and the Bucks would still be bigger, anyway.

That being said, there were plenty of matchup advantages for both teams in the season series. Offensively for Milwaukee, virtually all of the starters shot efficiently across every matchup. Holiday, especially, cooked everyone who guarded him. He averaged 18.8 points per game in the regular-season series on a preposterous 70.4 true shooting percentage. (The only player to ever accomplish that over a full season is Nikola Jokic -- Holiday's level of efficiency against Miami was absurd.) It wasn't just Holiday -- Middleton, Allen, and Antetokounmpo had true shooting percentages against Miami higher than their season averages.

Matchup data between Milwaukee and Miami from regular season

Miami's defensive players, (points-shot attempts)

Yet the same was true in part on the other end. Not for as many players, but certainly for Butler. Despite being guarded by an extraordinary defender in Holiday, he averaged 22.0 points per game in the series on 62.6 true shooting percentage. He made 18-of-34 midrange looks, which is extraordinary and above his season averages. He even hit two triples.

Matchup data between Milwaukee and Miami from regular season

Miami's offensive players, (points-shot attempts)

Some of the matchup numbers are obfuscated by neither team having the same starting lineup now as they did throughout the regular season series. Antetokounmpo, for example, guarded Martin in the only full game he played, who could come off Miami's bench. Here are my guesses for matchups.

Milwaukee on offense:

Vincent guarding Holiday

Herro guarding Allen

Strus guarding Middleton

Butler guarding Antetokounmpo

Adebayo guarding Lopez

That's straight across the positional spectrum, and it's likely how Miami starts the series. There's little to explain there. But there is a huge possibility for an adjustment with Adebayo switching onto Antetokounmpo if he gets hot early in the series. He has the size and speed to bother Antetokounmpo drives. That would mean another Miami player -- likely Butler -- would have to guard Lopez. There would be a risk there, particularly in taking Butler out of primary actions, but it would likely be Miami's best hope at trying to keep Antetokounmpo out of the paint. Even if that's not how the Heat start, and they save it for an adjustment, it would certainly be how Miami ends some possessions after switches and how some sections of the game unfold without Lopez on the floor. Adebayo is one of the strongest players in the league, and he heavily depresses Antetokounmpo's shot frequency within the paint and at the rim. No one else on Miami's roster should be able to have that impact.

Now for Miami on offense:

Holiday guarding Herro -- This needs a little explanation, particularly as Holiday guarded Butler for the entire season series. With Antetokounmpo healthy and playing, he will need to guard someone. If he has a defensive weakness, it is chasing shooters around off-ball screens. That limits the impact of his length, forces him to navigate screens, and keeps him as far away from the rim as possible which limits the value of his shot contests and rebounding. (It's not so much a weakness as a means of limiting his defensive strengths.) And Miami starts three movement shooters in Vincent, Herro, and Strus. Antetokounmpo likely won't guard any of them, which means he’ll guard Butler. That shifts Holiday onto the next-most important initiator for Miami, Herro.

Allen guarding Strus

Middleton guarding Vincent -- This is more cross-matching, with one of Milwaukee's forwards guarding Miami's starting point guard. But it puts enormous length at the point of attack and keeps Middleton -- who is one of Milwaukee's best defenders -- as close to the action as possible. He is also a solid chaser, and because Butler and Herro do so much of the initiation for Miami, that's an important component of guarding Vincent.

Antetokounmpo guarding Butler

Lopez guarding Adebayo

Some notes:

The Bench

Miami will have one of its best players coming off the bench, at least to start this series, in Kyle Lowry. He scored 33 points in Miami's first play-in game, hitting pull-up jumpers, flying into the paint for layups, and relocating around the court for catch-and-shoot triples. Even though he's not the scorer he once was -- he scored only five points in Miami's second play-in game -- he's still a walking paint touch and a brilliant creator for teammates. The former champion will change the texture of the offense for Miami when he steps on the court.

He will be far from the only bench player to do so. Both teams are near the bottom of the league in bench scoring, but simply putting the ball in the basket isn't the only thing bench players can do to change the game. Both teams in the regular season were at their best with the starters in the game -- Milwaukee led the league in net rating with five starters on the floor, at plus-10.8. However, the Bucks played all five starters for the lowest frequency in the league, at only 21 percent of games. The Heat didn't experience much dropoff at all with any number of bench players in the game, as long as at least one starter remained. They played two starter lineups even more than Milwaukee played all five starters together, at 22.7 percent frequency.

Bench players will factor hugely into this series as a result of both teams’ styles of play.

Milwaukee has almost an embarrassment of riches coming off the bench, and it's not immediately clear what the bench rotation will be in any individual game. There are simply too many NBA-caliber players to fit in a playoff rotation, which many coaches shrink to as few as eight or nine players. Mike Budenholzer almost certainly won't start with so few players in the rotation against Miami, but neither is he likely to go as deep as 11 or even 12 (depending on if Goran Dragic factors in). The starters still need time on the court, after all.

In recent games with players healthy, the rotation pattern has mostly been for Antetokounmpo, Allen, and Middleton to leave the game early in the first quarter to be replaced by three of Portis, Joe Ingles, Connaughton, and Wes Matthews. Ingles has been a great initiator off the bench for Milwaukee, particularly in the pick and roll with Lopez and Portis. Portis is a professional scorer, and Matthews and Connaughton are 3-and-D wings.

Then Antetokounmpo has returned to end the first quarter alongside the three bench players and Jevon Carter for a fast, switchable, transition-oriented group. Middleton and Allen return to play alongside Antetokounmpo and two bench players to start the second, often Carter and Connaughton. Eventually, the starters filter back into the game to close the half. The second half is much the same, or not, based on how the flow of the game unfolds.

Those quick substitutions keep Milwaukee fresh, and there's always shooting and defense on the floor. (It's easy when every rotation player is a shooter and defender.) But we still don't know how Crowder will factor into the rotation. Against the Philadelphia 76ers on April 2, one of the last games with Milwaukee fielding a full rotation, Crowder played 17 minutes while Connaughton and Matthews didn't factor into the game until garbage time. It's hard to say that will be a fixture in every contest, but it does show that Milwaukee both has too many players and versatile options for any scenario. Those are good problems to have.

The Bucks can shapeshift into different types of teams. When Crowder and Antetokounmpo have shared frontcourt duties, the Bucks have blown the doors off of opponents, with a plus-minus differential per 100 possessions of plus-12.5 (in a miniscule 60 total possessions, to be fair). They have gotten out in transition and hit over half their triples. If Milwaukee needs to show Miami different looks, it will be capable of throwing virtually any kind of pitch for a brief, two-minute stretch to begin the second quarter, for example. Big, half-court lineups with shooters at every position (Portis and Lopez together with starters), switchable lineups (Crowder, Connaughton, and Carter), groups that maximize ballhandlers and creators (Ingles and Dragic): Budenholzer can pick and choose what the Bucks need in an individual moment. Those transitional times during the game, when neither team has all its starters on the floor, could be rife for big runs by Milwaukee's two- and three-starter units.

Miami is more rigid in its approach. It played only three bench players in its play-in game against the Chicago Bulls: Martin, Lowry, and Love. All three are shooters, and while Martin is a versatile and physical defender, Lowry and Love are past their All-NBA primes and can lack footspeed in space. The team has been incredible dangerous with both on the floor, whether with Love at center or alongside another big, with a plus-minus differential of plus 25.6 in 141 possessions. The shooting has been elite, and the defense has forced tons of turnovers. The Heat don't change their style of play beyond centralizing some of the initiation in Lowry's hands and having a bigger floor-spacer in Love.

During the play-in games, Miami actually lost its five-starter minutes. They made up for that by shredding opponents with four starters on the floor, with a net rating of plus-22, and winning handily their three-starter minutes. A huge input to that was Martin winning his 27 minutes against the Bulls by 14 points. He is versatile, can shoot, defend multiple positions, and is a good finisher, too. The Heat don't have too many reliable bench players, but they do have three. Whether that's enough depth is a significant question.

Miami experimented with Victor Oladipo and Cody Zeller against the Atlanta Hawks in its first play-in game, but neither played more than nine minutes. Neither offers enough shooting to fit alongside the stars without sacrificing elsewhere, and they can't make up for it by playing elite defense. The Heat could also turn to Robinson as a shooter, though he's having a down year from deep, or Haywood Highsmith at a forward spot. But the Heat have far fewer proven options off the bench than Milwaukee. They could be left searching at points in the series for a trustworthy rotation, and the Bucks could capitalize when inexperienced playoff players like Zeller (190 career playoff minutes in a 10-season career) or Highsmith (31 career playoff minutes in a three-year career) take the floor.

Offensive and Defensive Styles

There has been much bleed-in about this section during everything prior, so I’ll try to keep this relatively brief. Obviously, "brief" is a relative term in an exercise like this.

Offensive playtype by team and efficiency

Possessions finished per game (points per possession)

The Bucks have, among NBA teams, perhaps the most established identity in the league. They know what works on both ends, and they know how to manufacture those small successes in a variety of situations. This is a long-term core in Antetokounmpo, Middleton, and Lopez that has been together since 2018-19 and added Holiday in 2020-21. That blanket of comfort and chemistry means everything Milwaukee does is based on years of knowledge and experience.

Offensively, the Bucks are a unique team within the context of the NBA. In a league obsessed by pick and rolls, pace, and frequency of actions, Milwaukee has gone the other direction. They are a bottom-four team in frequency of pick and rolls in a game, but the other teams in that category (Denver Nuggets, Golden State Warriors, Sacramento Kings) create pace and dynamism in other ways -- they have a high frequency of whirring handoffs, off-ball cuts, and player movement. The Bucks do little of those, either. Yet they create efficient offense in other ways. When they do run pick and rolls, they are excellent at making sure those shots go to the roller, which is generally the most efficient outcome. Lopez, Portis, and Antetokounmpo are all excellent there. They are stocked with elite shooters up and down the roster.

The Bucks drive less than almost any team in the league -- part of that is because Antetokounmpo only needs one drive per possession to create efficient shots, whereas other teams need multiple actions to open up defenses. In fact, that could explain why Milwaukee does so little offensively; it doesn't need to do more.

They replace pick and rolls with more static types of offense. They run a high frequency of isolations and post-ups, and they are one of the most efficient teams in post-up situations. They pass less than every team but five. Yet they create lots of catch-and-shoot jumpers out of their actions, which is one of the most efficient high-volume outcomes in the league. Whether a team drives to the rim, kicks out, drives again, kicks out, swings around the perimeter, and drives one more time to dunk -- or a team simply drives and dunks -- doesn't matter if the result is the same. Antetokounmpo's uniqueness as a player allowed Milwaukee to play a unique type of offense.

As a result, Milwaukee has the fifth-highest share of its shots coming from the rim or from deep. The length of time they take on an average offensive possession, excluding offensive rebounds, is among the 10 shortest, partially because they have a top-10 share of their possessions coming in transition. Antetokounmpo leads the league in possessions finished in transition. The Bucks do not have an overly complex offense, but they have an effective offense.

If all else fails, Holiday and Middleton are both upper-echelon isolation players and pick-and-roll scorers. Either can run a pick and roll with Antetokounmpo to force a switch, attack the bigger player, and launch pull-ups after getting the defender on his heels. That exact scenario was found money for the Bucks this year, particularly for Middleton.

Milwaukee has only been slightly above average on the offensive end this season, but there is a high floor to its process. It was top-10 in each of the previous four seasons -- with a healthy Middleton -- so there's a history of success informing Milwaukee's approach. The Bucks won't buckle against pressure or complex defensive schemes; they will find their counter quickly and hit different weak spots, just as they have for half a decade. The offense is better prepared for the grind and stasis of the playoffs than the free-flowing regular season.

The Heat, on the other hand, love complex defensive schemes. Erik Spoelstra is one of the most creative coaches in the league, and despite lacking size, the Heat force opponents to take the fourth-longest length of time on the offensive end. Cracking the Heat's evolving approach takes time and forces offenses into the backend of the shot clock, which allows Adebayo to switch onto the ball and snuff whomever has to force up a shot.

The Heat are a top-10 team at defending the pick and roll. They have all sorts of defensive tools in the shed; they switch at a top-five rate, which empowers Adebayo to consume possessions. They blitz ballhandlers of the pick and roll at a top-five rate, too, particularly using players with speedy hands like Martin and Butler (both enjoying above-80th-percentile steal rates). They’ll disguise coverages, using veerback switches as emergency means of stopping the ballhandler in the pick and roll, or even using switch-to-blitz as a means of pretending to switch before jumping on the opposing ballhandler with multiple defenders. Such late switches give them the ability to eat up extra clock, slow down the offense, and force late-clock isolations.

The Heat play an aggressive style of defense. They switch to empower turnover creation, which is the strength of the team -- the Heat have been top-five at forcing turnovers in each of the last three seasons. They rarely foul and clean the glass well. They play more zone than anyone else in the league, but they don't rely on it -- using it as a curve ball to confuse offenses here and there rather than a crutch.

It is difficult to force turnovers against static offenses. If the Bucks run zero- or one-pass possessions for Middleton and Holiday in pick and roll with Antetokounmpo, it will be difficult for Miami to get out in transition. Can Miami score going the other direction if it doesn't get out in transition? Milwaukee will score fairly well in those circumstances.

The Bucks sported one of the best defenses in the league this season. They gear the system to defanging opposing pick and rolls, trusting Lopez to defend the paint without any help, and using length across the rest of the roster to funnel the ball into him. They drop the center low and ask ballhandler defenders to chase over screens with more frequency than any other team in the league. The system works wonders. Lopez is a monster in the paint, and the rearview contests from players like Holiday or Carter are fantastic at deterring jumpers outside of the range of Lopez.

Milwaukee can switch pick and rolls, and it will with Antetokounmpo or Portis playing center, but it rarely does so when Lopez is on the floor. Similarly, Milwaukee rarely switches off-ball screens, instead preferring to play trail-and-drop defense to keep its shell intact rather than overreacting to off-ball movement and risking breakdowns. That was the case in the regular-season series, and Miami's whirring player movement did little to create efficient offense against Milwaukee. (That does mean movement shooters can find open jumpers catching the ball around pindowns -- Strus especially could find lots of open triples. Though he shot 22.7 percent from deep in the regular season against Milwaukee, the defensive scheme could result in a higher frequency of attempts for him.)

Teams isolate less against the Bucks than against any other team in the league, and they post-up the sixth least often. In both play-types, Milwaukee also allows a bottom-10 efficiency. Milwaukee is so long and disciplined that static offensive plays are basically non-starters, as the Bucks can show help without opening up passing or driving lanes. Antetokounmpo and Holiday especially are defensive play-finishers at the end of the clock; if Butler or Herro face one of them with five seconds left on the clock, it will be hard to even get a jumper to the rim, let alone to make it.

The Bucks can play more complex defenses if required. They blitz very rarely in the pick and roll, usually reserving such moments for players like Steph Curry, Luka Doncic, and James Harden when Portis is playing center -- but they are the second-best defense when doing so. While the Heat do such things proactively to force turnovers, the Bucks save it as a reaction to turn off the tap when offenses are winning small advantages against a different coverage.

Offensively, the Heat are diverse. Butler gets his shots from a variety of actions, including handling in the pick and roll, isolating from the nail, and posting up -- especially in transition, where he's deadly stealing deep position and sealing smalls. The team takes its identity from Butler, and it stands out in no category as far as frequency goes. Miami is a very efficient isolation team -- within the top five -- but it only really allows Butler, Adebayo, and Herro to actually derail the offense and isolate. There's some self-selecting greatness to the numbers, with the Heat limiting isolations to only the moments and players beneficial to success, rather than using it as a foundational means of initiating offense.

But against the Bucks in the regular season, the Heat mostly became a high pick-and-roll team. Its frequency skyrocketed at the expense of isolations and handoffs. Part of that is the Heat believing they had an advantage against the drop -- and Strus, Herro, and Vincent all had moments of pick-and-roll brilliance in Miami's two wins, especially. But part of Miami's focus on pick and rolls was Milwaukee's ability to force teams away from isolations. If any offense is too repetitive, Milwaukee will latch onto it and force it to say uncle. There are too many athletic and brilliant defenders on the Bucks’ roster to lose to the same action over and over. Miami will need to find more than just pick and rolls to score efficiently.

Success there early would open up those other opportunities for Miami. Adebayo is a great passer on the move, and if Milwaukee is forced to play higher against the pick and roll, that could be Adebayo's most significant means of contributing on the offensive end. He can finish at the rim or spray passes to open shooters. Milwaukee will try hard not to open itself to such damage from inside the paint, so it will play drop for as long as possible. It will be on Miami to force the change.

Prediction

We can't forget that these two teams, or very similar versions of them, did the dance in 2021, and the Bucks swept the Heat. Does Miami have other questions it can pose to this Milwaukee team? And even if it does, are there any to which the Bucks wouldn't have answers?

Ultimately, prediction is a question of a five-game series or a sweep, given the talent and tactical gap between the two teams. But let's pretend everything goes right for Miami in a game; the Heat get hot from deep, and Strus and Herro shake free with cuts. Butler dominates at the rim, and Adebayo locks up the paint on the other end. Is that a guaranteed win for Miami? Holiday and Middleton could still score enough to allow Milwaukee to keep pace, and the bench minutes with, say, Carter and Crowder and Connaughton pushing the pace would still give Milwaukee quick 8-1 runs (for example) during the game. Antetokounmpo would remain the best player in the series, capable of exploding for a 20-point quarter whenever necessary. If the Heat go into a fourth quarter ahead by even double digits, that's far from insurmountable for a Bucks team that led the association in clutch play.

There are few pockets of the game in which Miami should find advantages. The Heat are not a great pick-and-roll team, and the Bucks are the best in the league defending such plays, anyway. But the Bucks are also fantastic defending more rote play-types such as isolations or post-ups. If the game devolves into isolation contests, as it surely will for stretches, Middleton and Holiday will find easier shots against Miami's small guards than Butler or Herro will against Milwaukee's cadre of wings. As a way of ensuring that, Milwaukee could play Crowder or Carter instead of Allen, and then there would be no hole whatsoever to attack.

Miami's best hope has to be to win the possession game by forcing turnovers and crashing the offensive glass. But Milwaukee is elite at limiting offensive rebounding, and it's not hard for pull-up initiators like Holiday or Middleton to depress turnovers by simply running zero-pass possessions. No matter what, Milwaukee should have a means of defusing whatever advantage Miami can scrounge.

So let's go with a sweep. That's what happened in 2021, and the Bucks are probably as good a team now as they were then. And the Heat are likely a lesser team. No. 1 seeds are supposed to have advantages over No. 8s, and the gap here is indeed large. That we have prior playoff evidence between these two teams only confirms the theory. Bucks in four.