If Jimmy Butler can limit Jamal Murray, Nuggets' NBA Finals hopes in trouble

Doesn't matter whether you guard Nikola Jokic with Rui Hachimura or an armored tank. He's going to get his. As NBA playoff strategies go, Rui on Jokic was "Candyland" stuff.

Jimmy Butler on Jamal Murray? Now that was the work of a chess master.

"You just try to make it tough on (Jokic), take the other X-factors out of the game, slow Murray down to get to that pick and roll," Heat forward Kevin Love explained after Miami stunned Denver at home to steal a game at Ball Arena and hit Game 3 in South Florida with the series tied 1-1. "They’re so devastating — maybe, probably, the most devastating 1-2 punch in the league. That's why they’re here."

With all apologies to Rui, LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Darvin Ham, ESPN and armored tanks, having Butler guard Murray wasn't just the tweak of the NBA Finals.

It was the tweak of the playoffs.

Miami coach Erik Spoelstra just slapped the button on the chess clock, leaned back in his comfy chair, hands on the back of his neck, and dared Denver's Michael Malone and his staff to get their queen out of a pickle.

The Blue Arrow (18 points, 10 assists, four boards, one turnover) was good Sunday night. But for the Nuggets to come back to Ball Arena with a 2-2 split or 3-1 series lead after Games 3 and 4, Murray's probably gonna have to flip that switch to great. And Spoelstra knows it.

Denver can win when the Arrow's launching duds — see Timberwolves Game 3 (Murray was 7 for 16 from floor) or Suns Game 2 (3 for 15, 0 for 9 on treys). Yet smothering Kitchener, Ontario's finest is as good a gambit right now as any, given the alternatives.

For one thing, it asks the Nuggets’ other guys on the wing to find a way to beat you. In Game 1, Aaron Gordon saw a hole and ran through it like Terrell Davis with a full head of steam. In Game 2, Michael Porter Jr. saw that same hole — and hit it like Melvin Gordon.

Denver is 10-2 this postseason when Murray drops 20 points or more; the Nuggets are 3-2 when he doesn't. Denver's 8-0 when the Blue Arrow connects on four or more treys in a game; 5-4 when he doesn't.

If Jokic beats you, Spoelstra figured, fine, cool, whatever, he's Nikola Jokic. Murray, though? No. 27 shot straight to the top of the scouting report for Game 2, and with good reason. If the Arrow is firing, you’re toast. If he isn't, well, flip a coin.

The adjustment after Game 1 proved as effective as it was simple: Start Love in the frontcourt while handing Jimmy Buckets most of the responsibility for keeping Murray in check.

So far, so good, at least for South Beach. In the eight-plus minutes Butler has guarded Murray in the Finals, per NBA.com tracking data, the Arrow is 3 for 8 from the floor (37.5%), with five assists and one turnover. Murray's made 15 of 29 shots (51.7%) when guarded by anybody else in Miami red.

"It's funny how when your best player is running through the brick wall," Turner Sports NBA analyst Reggie Miller said of Butler's playoff intensity, "how everyone else is running right behind him, pushing them through. (The Heat) have gained that confidence because of Jimmy Butler, and you see how they perform on the road. Which is great."

The Nuggets, meanwhile, smelled of entitlement early in Game 2, giving off the air of premature paper champions with three quarters of the Finals mountain still to climb. Which had to drive Malone, a terrier who wants that locker room to mimic his bite, completely mental.

"We can't just have spurts of (the) second quarter (being) good, end of the third (being) good," Murray reasoned after Game 2. "We can't have spurts of good play. We’ve got to play all the way through, through ups and downs, stay together and play with intensity and energy, and I don't think we had that (Sunday)."

The Nuggets are more talented than the Heat, pound for pound. Then again, so were the Bucks and Celtics. Butler is going to make Murray bust his tail for every look. And you remember the old adage about hard work beating talent when talent doesn't work hard?

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